Guide · Tournaments
ICM in Poker: What It Is and Why Tournament Chips Are Not Worth the Same
ICM turns chips into prize money. With it you can see why you call with fewer hands near the bubble than in a cash game, and how many fewer.
5 min read · Updated on
In short
ICM (the Independent Chip Model) estimates how much prize money your stack is worth in a tournament. Because the chips you lose cost more than the chips you win are worth, you need more than 50% equity to call an even-money all-in: how much more depends on the payouts and the stack sizes.
- Of the money is what 50% of the chips is worth (example)
- 38.4%
- Of the money is what 50% of the chips is worth (example)
- Equity needed to call in the example, not 50%
- 61%
- Equity needed to call in the example, not 50%
- Bubble factor of a typical bubble spot
- 2.1
- Bubble factor of a typical bubble spot
What is ICM?
In a cash game a chip is worth exactly its face value: winning 100 chips is winning 100 chips. In a tournament it is not. Your goal is not to collect chips, it is to finish in a paying place, and prizes do not grow in line with your chips: doubling your stack does not double your prize.
ICM puts that idea into numbers. It assumes your chance of finishing first is your share of all the chips, removes the winner, and repeats with the remaining players for second place, third and so on. Adding up chance times prize gives your expected prize. This is the Malmuth-Harville method, and you can try it in the ICM calculator.
A worked example
Three players are left with 5,000, 3,000 and 2,000 chips. The prizes are 50, 30 and 20. This is what each stack is worth:
| Player | Chips | % of chips | ICM value | % of money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 5,000 | 50% | 38.39 | 38.4% |
| B | 3,000 | 30% | 32.75 | 32.8% |
| C | 2,000 | 20% | 28.86 | 28.9% |
Here is how A's value comes out: A wins first place 50% of the time, takes second place 33.9% of the time and third place 16.1%. So A is worth 50 × 0.50 + 30 × 0.339 + 20 × 0.161 = 38.39.
How much equity you need to call
Keep the same example. B (3,000) faces an all-in from A (5,000). If B folds, the stack is worth 32.75. If B calls and wins, it grows to 41.00 (a gain of 8.25). If B calls and loses, B is out in third place and collects 20.00 (a loss of 12.75).
To break even on the call, B has to win 12.75 ÷ (8.25 + 12.75) ≈ 61% of the time. With chips alone 50% would be enough. Those almost 11 extra points are the ICM risk premium.
| Situation | Equity to call | Bubble factor |
|---|---|---|
| Cash game or heads-up | 50% | 1.0 |
| Three players, prizes 50 / 30 / 20 (example above) | 61% | 1.55 |
| Bubble: 4 players, 2 paid, 4,000 vs 4,000 | 68% | 2.08 |
What changes in your strategy
Call tighter
Near the bubble or a pay jump, many hands you would call in a cash game become folds. Not busting is what matters.
Shove wider when the opponent cannot afford to call
If the opponent is tied down by ICM, your shove wins more often. Big stacks put pressure on medium stacks.
Short stacks have their own pressure
A stack about to be blinded out cannot wait: even with ICM it plays push/fold ranges.
It depends on who covers whom
Calling a stack that covers you risks everything; calling a shorter one does not. ICM measures that for you.
The OrcaGTO push/fold charts are chip EV, without ICM. Use them as a starting point and tighten your calling range when the bubble factor is above 1.
What ICM does not do
It assumes every player wins a hand in proportion to their chips, so it ignores skill, position, the blinds still to come and how each opponent plays. In practice it slightly undervalues big stacks (which can use their advantage) and overvalues short ones.
It is still the standard approximation: tournament solvers and players use it as the base. If you want to go further, there are models that add a positional edge, but they do not change the core idea.
Frequently asked questions
What is ICM in poker?
Independent Chip Model: a method that turns your chips into the prize money you are expected to win in a tournament, assuming the chance of each finishing place depends on each player's share of the chips.
What is the bubble factor?
How much more a lost chip costs you than a won chip earns you, in money. At 1 there is no difference; at 2 you risk twice what you can win and you need about two-thirds equity to call.
Why do I need more than 50% to call an all-in in a tournament?
Because busting out loses the whole value of your stack, and doubling up does not double your prize. The gap between the equity you need with ICM and the pot-odds equity is the ICM risk premium.
When does ICM matter most?
Near the bubble, before a big pay jump and at final tables with very uneven payouts. Early on, with many players and flat payouts, it matters little.
Is there a free ICM calculator?
Yes: the OrcaGTO ICM calculator. Enter stacks and payouts and it shows what each stack is worth and how much equity you need to call an all-in.
Does ICM apply to cash games?
No. In a cash game each chip is worth its face value, so the equity you need to call is just the pot odds.
Turn the numbers into decisions.
Practice short-stack spots in the trainer and see when to shove and when to fold. Free, and no real money.