Guide · Poker odds
Poker odds chart: the numbers for every street of a hand
How often you are dealt aces, how often you hit the flop, how many outs you need and who wins the classic all-in matchups. Every figure is calculated, not copied from another chart.
4 min read · Updated on
In short
You are dealt a pocket pair 1 in 17 hands (5.9%) and pocket aces 1 in 221 (0.45%). With a pair, you flop a set or better 12% of the time. With a flush draw on the flop, you complete it 35% of the time if you see both the turn and the river.
- hands is a pocket pair
- 1 in 17
- hands is a pocket pair
- hands is pocket aces
- 1 in 221
- hands is pocket aces
- flops pairs you when unpaired
- 1 in 3
- flops pairs you when unpaired
- to complete a flush draw by the river
- 35%
- to complete a flush draw by the river
Preflop odds: what you are dealt
| Starting hand | Probability | About 1 in… |
|---|---|---|
| Any pocket pair | 5.9% | 17 hands |
| One specific pair (e.g. AA) | 0.45% | 221 hands |
| AA or KK | 0.9% | 111 hands |
| AK (any suits) | 1.2% | 83 hands |
| At least one ace | 14.9% | 7 hands |
| Two suited cards | 23.5% | 4 hands |
Flop odds: how often you hit
Holding a pocket pair
12% · set or better
That is why small pairs are played for set value: you flop one about 1 time in 8.
Unpaired (e.g. AK)
32% · pair with a hole card
The other 68% of the time you miss completely. AK usually flops no pair.
Suited
0.8% · flopped flush
And 10.9% of the time you flop a flush draw (four to a suit).
Connected (e.g. 87)
1.3% · flopped straight
And 9% of the time you flop an open-ended straight draw.
Poker outs chart: outs to percentages
Outs are the cards that make your winning hand. With a flush draw you have 9 (nine cards of your suit are left). Here is how outs convert to probability:
| Outs | Example | Next card (turn) | Flop to river |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gutshot straight draw | 8.5% | 16.5% |
| 6 | Two overcards | 12.8% | 24.1% |
| 8 | Open-ended straight draw | 17.0% | 31.5% |
| 9 | Flush draw | 19.1% | 35.0% |
| 12 | Flush draw + overcard | 25.5% | 45.0% |
| 15 | Flush draw + open-ended straight draw | 31.9% | 54.1% |
The exact math uses the 47 cards you cannot see on the flop (52 minus your 2 and the 3 on the board). One card to come: outs / 47. Two cards to come: 1 minus the chance of missing twice, (47 minus outs) / 47 times (46 minus outs) / 46. For 9 outs that is 1 − (38/47 × 37/46) = 35.0%. Unfamiliar terms are in the poker glossary.
Texas hold'em odds: classic preflop all-in matchups
| Matchup | First hand wins | Second hand wins | What it is called |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA vs KK | 82.6% | 17.4% | Overpair vs underpair |
| JJ vs 99 | 80.9% | 19.1% | Overpair vs underpair |
| KK vs A7 (offsuit) | 71.1% | 28.9% | Pair vs one overcard |
| AK vs AQ | 74.8% | 25.2% | Same ace, better kicker |
| QQ vs AK | 57.2% | 42.8% | The classic coin flip |
| 22 vs AK | 53.0% | 47.0% | Coin flip: even the smallest pair is ahead |
| AK vs JT | 62.6% | 37.4% | Two high cards vs two lower cards |
| AKs vs 76s | 60.4% | 39.6% | High cards vs connectors |
Poker hand odds: what you finish with at the river
If you see all 7 cards, the most common result is one pair (43.8%) or two pair (23.5%). A full house shows up 2.6% of the time, and a royal flush 1 in 30,940.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of being dealt pocket aces?
0.45%, or 1 in 221 hands. Any pocket pair comes about 1 in 17 hands.
What are the odds of hitting a flush?
Starting with two suited cards, you flop a flush 0.8% of the time. With a flush draw on the flop, you complete it 35% of the time if you see both the turn and the river.
How many outs do I need and what do they mean in percent?
Each out is worth about 2% on the next card and about 4% across turn and river. Exact numbers: 9 outs is 19.1% on the turn and 35.0% from flop to river; 8 outs is 17.0% and 31.5%.
Who is ahead, a pair or two overcards?
The pair is a slight favorite. QQ beats AK 57% of the time and even 22 beats it 53%, which is why it is called a coin flip.
What are the odds of flopping a set?
About 12% when you hold a pocket pair, roughly 1 time in 8.
What are the odds of a royal flush in Texas hold'em?
1 in 30,940 hands if you see all 7 cards. In five-card poker it is 1 in 649,740.
Knowing the numbers is half the work. Using them is the other half.
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